If END spread to just one complex in Alabama, 850 workers would be idled, resulting in a $300,000 weekly payroll loss. The lost production at $2.10 per bird times 1,000,000 birds/week would equal $2.1 million per week. The disposal cost would be $0.12 per bird times 6,500,000 or $780,000. Five hundred forty-five vacant houses at $1,200 per week could result in unpaid mortages equal to $654,000 per week. This could result in widespread foreclosures. About 120 to 140 growers would be idled. Cleanup would cost several million dollars. New ramp-up costs of several million dollors would occur
after the eradication of END. However, if one Alabama complex was infected with END, it is quite likely that most other complexes would also be affected.

If END spread through Alabama, for one dollar of poultry lost, the state’s economy my would lose $3.91. If all 18 Alabama complexes were affected, approximately 20 million birds per week lost production would equal about $40 million per week. Using the multiplier $3.91, total losses of $150 million per week or more would be incurred. END could result in 14,000 or more idled poultry houses and 3,500 idled

growers. With no flocks, but continuing mortgages, there could be $10 million to $15 million per week in unserviced debt. 20,000 complex employees and another 20,000 to 30,000 employees in allied industries would be idled.

Complete export restrictions would be imposed. The impact on surrounding states would be large. Potential economic losses to the Alabama economy would total in the hundreds of millions of dollars, with thousands of jobs and widespread disruption of the entire agribus-niess sector of Alabama’s economy resulting.